[smoothfunding] [tentative_conclusions]

The funds tend to run away over time, soaking up capital, which is essentially wasted. At this stage, I have only run the model over 15 years but the next iteration will be for pensioners alone over 25 years, who will all die within that timeframe. Yes, there can be ruin but not that often. Absolute protection is way too expensive for private sector sponsors and seeking it is really the enemy of the good.

We need to stop relying upon the discount process for long-term financial entities because cashflows are the key elements. Capitalisation was the original actuarial tool but it is no longer the only long-term tool available. Apart from hiding far more than it reveals (“fake news”?), especially liquidity positions over time, it provides just one view of the complex future, with no indication whatsoever of likelihoods of failure or success.

The actuarial unique selling point needs to be reformulated and then publicly restated.
We need a great deal more balance between short term and long term views. One essential element should be balancing options over different periods/parties. Perhaps “looking beyond”, rather than “looking at” would be a good start?

If we can't do simple, can we really do complex? I honestly doubt it. That the current UK pension regulations, originally designed by UK actuaries, are framed as they are is far from helpful. As a profession, the actuaries should have been explaining all of this far more loudly than I can - but they haven’t done that and still don’t. The LLDI mess in late September 2022 should have set off warning lights but, no, let’s do the same thing again, just a little bit better. That has not enhanced actuaries’ reputations.