Adobe Flash was discontinued from the end of 2020 and is now inaccessible to most users of Apple devices and to many users of Windows devices. Having now found out how to generate interactive charts in HTML5, I have finally switched. It is still possible to play Flash files on Windows.

Using the random numbers generated, the model is run in Excel and the final results exported and saved in Excel. The first thing I have looked at is how often the required initial Off fund is lower than for MtM.

Each of the “outcomes” pages (see left) shows a table with a few comments. The interactive charts show “fund development”, “solvency level” and “ruin likelihood”. Each chart has two colour-coded (blue and red) sets of parameters on the right and the grey bar is defined as “red” minus “blue”.

The statistics of interest are mean, standard deviation, highest 5.0% or lowest 5.0% (only the mean is shown for ruin). Even though they probably won’t have been generated from the same scenario sets, I think it is still reasonable to compare the highest 5.0% for one measure with the highest 5.0% for a different measure.