[smoothfunding] [outcomes]

Adobe Flash was discontinued from the end of 2020 and is now inaccessible on most devices, whether Apple or Windows. Being now able to generate interactive charts in HTML5, I have finally switched. It is still possible to play Flash files on Windows.

Using the random numbers generated, the model is run in Excel and the final results exported and saved in Excel. For each of 2 combinations of period and asset choice, the 3 charts show “fund development”, “solvency level” and “ruin likelihood”. Each chart has two colour-coded (blue and red) sets of parameters on the right and the grey bar is defined as “red” minus “blue”.

The first set of charts shows the results for all 4 periods for 3 asset types (equities, conventional gilts and a 50:50 combo) while the second set of charts shows the results for blend alone for 6 asset types (equities, conventional gilts, index-linked gilts and 3 50:50 combos).

The statistics of interest are mean, standard deviation, highest 5.0% or lowest 5.0% (only the mean is shown for ruin). Even though they probably won’t have been generated from the same scenario sets, I think it is still reasonable to compare the highest 5.0% for one measure with the highest 5.0% for a different measure.